By Andrew Benson

The start of the new Formula One season is just a few days away, and as usual all the teams and drivers are expressing their optimism about having a good year.

They cannot all be right, so here is a guide to who really is hot and who is not as the field prepares to roar into action in Melbourne on Sunday.

Ask anyone in Formula One which teams will be competing for the big prize this year, and they will give you the same answer - Ferrari and McLaren.

Ferrari and McLaren are out on their own at the front again

Ferrari have had an especially impressive time in pre-season testing, looking strong every time they have gone out on to the track.

World champion Kimi Raikkonen is now fully settled at Ferrari, and with a car that looks like the class of the field and Brazilian Felipe Massa providing more than capable back-up, the team appear formidable.

What of their main competition? Lewis Hamilton was the driver of the year last season - notwithstanding Raikkonen's late surge to the title and the errors from the Englishman that assisted it - and he will be the Finn's main rival.

606: DEBATE All the ingredients seem to be there for a Grand Prix season of impeccable vintage Andrew Benson - BBC Sport

So Hamilton's best chance may be in what appears to be a slight weakness in Ferrari's traditionally cast-iron reliability.

BMW look to be among the best of the rest behind the big two

This is where predictions start to get difficult - even members of the teams themselves are not sure how things will shake out.

Behind the big two, BMW Sauber ended last season in a little class of their own - not quite quick enough to challenge the big two, but not under much threat from anyone else either.

But it is far from clear they will hold on to that position.

More than one F1 insider has described BMW as this season's "dark horse", in that they have played their cards pretty close to their chest in pre-season testing.

They are just about the only team not to do a "qualifying simulation" run over the winter, so their ultimate pace is hard to judge.

But after a troubled first couple of weeks with their new car, BMW have looked back to form and there is an air of quiet, understated confidence about the team.

The best wisdom seems to be that they are slightly ahead of a very tight midfield pack, although there are suggestions they may struggle keeping their tyres in good condition over a race stint.

Alonso will have to get used to not winning for a while

But they will face stiff competition from Renault, Williams and Red Bull.

These teams seem to be extremely evenly matched, and their form on any given weekend may well end up depending as much on how well their cars suit an individual circuit as anything else.

Double world champion Fernando Alonso's return to Renault after a troubled year at McLaren has given the team a confidence boost, but they still seem a long way from rediscovering the form that helped the Spaniard to two straight titles in 2005-6.

Alonso's sheer class should ensure Renault have a better season than last year, but both Red Bull and Williams have shown impressive pace on occasions through the winter.

A stupendous one-off lap by Trulli's Toyota set tongues wagging

There is one potential cat among the midfield pigeons. Until a fortnight ago, no-one was expecting much from Toyota, but then Jarno Trulli produced a stupendous one-off lap at Barcelona that came close to McLaren/Ferrari pace and left onlookers scratching their heads.

This sort of thing can happen in winter testing - a most unlikely car sets a most unlikely time, promising a great season, and then that form is never seen again.

But there seems no obvious reason for Toyota to pull some of the tricks employed by teams in the past to look good pre-season.

The Japanese car giant has displayed a great talent for shooting itself in the foot in F1 so far, but that lap has got a few people wondering whether this might be the season they finally start to get it together.

There may also be a couple of new additions to the mix towards back of this group - the Red Bull junior team Toro Rosso and Force India.

Toro Rosso, who are starting the season with last year's car, have looked quite competitive in race trim, and it will be interesting to see how quadruple Champ Car champion Sebastien Bourdais adapts to F1.

They are expected to spring a surprise or two in Melbourne, and may even be a threat to parent team Red Bull.

As for Force India, this is the third consecutive year the former Jordan team have started with new owners, but after a couple of unsettling seasons it at least looks like Indian billionaire Vijay Mallya is in it for the reasonably long haul.

Fisichella will help raise Force India to a new level this season

As Spyker, the team spent much of last year firmly rooted to the back of the field.

But now rebranded, and making a claim to be India's national team, they have produced a new car that is a huge step forward.

With veteran Giancarlo Fisichella - who is a massive step forward on the driver front - they can expect to make some reasonable progress this season.

The arrival of former Ferrari technical chief Ross Brawn at Honda as team principal is likely to lead to an upturn in their fortunes - just not yet.

Early on this winter, Honda were talking confidently of getting back to where they were in 2006 - ie fighting for decent points positions, and maybe the odd podium.

Button is facing another season of toil and turmoil at Honda

But Honda's winter testing programme has been fraught with problems and so far this year's car looks every bit as troublesome as last year's, which was famously described by Jenson Button as a "dog".

Improvements are expected for the first race of the season, but already Brawn is starting to talk about focusing on 2009, and the new regulations that season will bring, as Honda's best chance to get back to form.

That is not a good sign before the season has even started.

Brawn will undoubtedly get the team back on an even keel, but it is looking like a tougher job than probably even he imagined.

One can only imagine how Button and team-mate Rubens Barrichello feel about this. Both are proven race winners and among the fastest drivers in the world, but their talents are being criminally wasted by Honda right now.

For Honda-supported Super Aguri, things look even less optimistic.

They have not run a new car at all this winter as a result of a lack of money, and it will be an almighty struggle just to get on to the grid in Melbourne.

Anything else will be a bonus.