A slide showing vCJD

As few as 40 people in the UK could die from the human form of BSE over the next 80 years, according to researchers from Imperial College London.

Statistics from the CJD Surveillance Unit show 129 people have died from vCJD in the UK since it emerged in 1995.

Deaths are thought to have peaked in 2000 when 28 people died from the condition.

In 2001, 20 died, falling to 17 in 2002. So far this year, eight people have died from the disease.

Dr Azra Ghani, who carried out the work, said, at worst, only another 540 cases would be reported in the UK by 2080.

He said: "Our results suggest that the vCJD epidemic will continue to decline with a best estimate of only 40 future cases."

Genetic group

Dr Ghani's predictions are based on data up to the 2002 figures, and do not include any cases arising through secondary transmission, such as via surgical equipment.

But scientists are still reluctant to state categorically that the incidence of vCJD is in permanent decline.

vCJD tends to affect young adults. So far, all cases have been seen in people with a specific genetic characteristic that made them susceptible to the condition.

If it is seen in other genetic groups, scientists say case numbers may then rise.

The Imperial College researchers used a statistical model based on the number of vCJD cases and the level of exposure to cattle to suggest the incubation period for the disease was likely to be around 12 years.

Dr Ghani said: "The development of a diagnostic test that is able to detect infection early in the incubation period and that can be used to reduce the risk of secondary transmission remains a high priority."

A spokesman for the Spongiform Encephalopathy Advisory Committee (Seac) told BBC News Online: "It's premature to say this is definitive evidence.

"It may indicate a slowing down of the epidemic rather than a peak, but it's an encouraging sign."